CHANGE-READY OR NOT Climate: our Choice, Our Responsibility

Preparing for the Future:

Change Ready or Not is devoted to understanding and addressing the climate crisis. Read up-to-date insights, analyses, and information to help us preserve the Holocene geological epoch and the environmentally benign conditions which have proven very beneficial for human well-being, and the development of our civilisations. One component of future power sources is seen in the photograph on the right. It is a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant in Spain. Our Sun has always been, and always will be, the most constant and reliable source of energy for all life on planet Earth
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THE FUTURE IS OURS TO DETERMINE

The graph on the right, shows more clearly the Holocene period. And, more clearly, the +2.11°F (+1.17°C) temperature compared to the 1960 to 1990 average temperatures.
The Earth's Temperature Is Climbing - again! The above graph, from Wikipedia Commons, shows the current global temperature of +2.11°F (+1.17°C), compared to 1960 to 1990 average. This is the highest since the latter third of the Pleistocene geological epoch about two and a half million years ago. The Reality of Climate Inaction: Modern humans, and our highly developed structures of civil society, should be wary of testing the higher global temperatures of the first third of the Pleistocene epoch. Refer to the original Wikipedia Commons file for a larger image.
The Urgency of Change:
It is critically important to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Time is now of the essence, and very limited, for creating sustainable solutions equitable for all of Earth's people. We need to reduce the occurance and frequency future climate catastrophes. Continued destruction of the environment will lead lead to catastrophic consequences.
happening all over the world:
The effects of rising and warmer oceans are being manifested all around the world. The problem is threefold: A. Ice melt raises sea levels, B. Thermal expansion, from increasing ocean temperatures, also raises sea levels C. Heat absorbed from the atmosphere increases ocean energy levels and causes more severe storms, Collaroy Beach Club 2016: Acknowledgement: William West/AFP
FUNAFUTI, TUVALU
King tides, in April 2024, damaged roads near the coast in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Weather effects, that have occasionally been very severe and damaging are going to happen with much greater frequency. Instead of one-in-one-hundred-year weather events, we shall be talking of one-in-ten-year weather events! Supplied: Tuvalu Meteorological Service
Total CO2 emissions - 1750 to when??
It is critically important to reduce carbon emissions, and time is of the essence. We must find sustainable solutions as there is a maximum amount of carbon that can be emitted into the atmosphere over all of time. The adjacent IPCC diagram shows, in orange, the maximum amount of CO2 the the whole world can emit, going forward, to keep the global temperature below 1.5°C, 1.7°C, and 2°C. The years 2032, 2041, 2053 correspond to the orange sectors as the size increases. It is interesting to note that 2°C Pie Chart of 2495 Gt +1230 Gt = 3725 Gt CO2 and when divided by 3.67 (CO2 to CO ratio) = 1015 Gt CO ≈ 1 trillion tonne carbon. Source: IPCC AR6 WG1

Hysterisis & Feedback loops. currently, one is helping us & one is working against us!

"Hysteresis is a lag between the input and output in a system. It derives from a Greek word for 'lagging'. In regard to global heating, the Earth's rise in temperature lags behind the amount of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. For instance, about 30% of heating is being absorbed by the oceans, which is currently slowing the global temperature rise. This is helping us at present - but the 'help' will not last forever."
"Feedback occurs when the output of a system feeds back into the system as an input. This is called a feedback loop. Feedback loops can be positive or negative. Negative feedback loops generally work to stabilise a system. Whereas, a positive feedback loop wil amplify a desired, or undesired variable in ther system. The melting of polar ice caps works as a positive feedback loop. When the ice melts, it reduces the Earth's albedo. This means more of the Sun's heat is retained, which causes more heating and melts the ice caps at a faster rate. This is working against us and is decidedly unhelpful."
Countries that have stated policies regarding the path to net zero known as STEPS. In 2020, the updated Stated Policy Scenario (STEPS) still shows the role of fossil fuels in the total energy supply in 2050 at 60%. Renewable energy sources will even then, still only make up for 40% of the total energy supply.The percentage of renewable energy sources (right hand scale on above graph) is represented above the yellow line. The 60% of total energy supply in 2050, would still see CO2 emissions of over 20 Gt into the atmosphere every year. This is not even close to being good enough!
The Earth from 6 billion kilometres into space
“Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there-on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.” Carl Sagan: 1994
There is a heap of exceedingly brilliant, detailed and complex work carried out on Global Warming, Climate Change, or Planetary Heating, by hundreds of different Research Organisations, Government Agencies, Universities and the United Nations. Take your pick! Global Warming, Climate Change, or Planetary Heating, they are all terms describing the mess we are in on planet Earth. No one source can answer all the questions, and Change Ready or Not is certainly no exception to the rule. All of the organisations listed below will help to fill in any gaps that will inevitably pop up in any discussion on this topic. This is not an exhaustive list.
Image credit: National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA)
STABLE POLAR VORTEX & DISRUPTED POLAR VORTEX
The polar vortex is an area of low pressure cold air, over and surrounding, Earth’s North and South Poles. The Polar Vortex is the name given anti-clockwise flow of air that is instrumental in keeping the colder air near the Poles. [See LH diagram above - Stable Polar Vortex]. The Polar Vortex becomes disrupted, as a consequence of the heating of the planet, when warm air pushes north, in the case of the Arctic, from the equatorial regions. The Polar Jet Stream becomes 'wavy', and instead of a concentrated region of low pressure roughly centred on the north pole, multiple regions of low pressure form, and the polar vortex is destabilised. [See RH diagram above - Disrupted Polar Vortex] This is when extreme, arctic-like, weather conditions are experienced at much lower latitudes than previously.
Image credit National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) An illustration of a single region of low atmospheric pressure, but with the polar vortex and polar jet stream, beginning to to destabilise. [LH]. The RH illustration shows multiple regions of low pressue, disrupted polar vortices and polar jet stream.
In this barametric pressure chart, there appears to be 5 or 6 regions of low pressure/cold air - shown in mauve/purple.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)International Energy Agency (IEA)National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)Our World in Data
The World Bank Group - Climate Change Knowledge PortalUnited States Environmental Protection Agency.World Resources Institute (WTI)National Weather, Meteorological, Offices and Bureaus International Energy Agency (IEA)National Geographic Wikipedia

This is what we are fighting for.

Change Ready or Not (changereadyornot.com) provides analyses and insights about the current climate crisis. Change endeavours to present strategies to re-stabise the chemistry of the biosphere without causing the planet to sink into wars and injustice. To pretend this can be achieved without substantial financial investment is a fantasy of the highest order. It is also a fantasy to believe funding can be attributed to the nation states that have not benefited substantially from using the biosphere as a zero cost carbon sink. The alternative to properly funding the fight, will be chaos and catastrophe.

Wind turbines will not destroy our way of life. if we ignore the heating of the planet, the way of life many enjoy, or aspire to, will certainly be at risk.

Wind turbines in the Baltic Sea between Denmark and Sweden. We can learn to live with the new technology, just as we learned to live with the pollution from coal fired electricity generation. Pollution from the burning of all fossil fuels has been harmful for human health for a couple of centuries.
Katey Walter Anthony/ University of Alaska Fairbanks.

serious feedback caused by melting permafrost in the tundra regions.

As the planet heats, methane trapped under the frozen Tundra is allowed to escape into the atmosphere. Shorter lived in the atmosphere, but 25 to 30 times a more potent Greenhouse Gas (GHG) than Carbon Dioxide (CO2), its escape is dangerous. Especially, as the addition of Methane, puts even more GHG into the atmosphere, which adds to planetary heating, which, in turn, causes more Methane to be released. A very dangerous feedback loop if ever there was one! The photograph on the left shows, methane bubblling up through the surface ice of of a thermokarst lake, from the thawed permafrost at the bottom of the lake. Above all, be aware, over the past four decades, the Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the global average.
Source: Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit (CRU)

Temperature: 1850 to 2020

The 1850 to 1900 0°C Holocene baseline persisted for 11,600 years. Then a huge spurt in global heating 1900 to 1950. The temperature stabilisation ≈1950 to ≈1970 was due to the, post WWII massive industrial expansion, fuelled by extremely polluting electricity generating, and industrial practises, which produced large amounts of 'sun-shielding' sulphur dioxide (SO2) and fine particulate matter. Post the 70's is easy to see.
Source: IPCC

Solving the problem of a rapidly warming earth, will require the very highest level of political & economic leadership .

There is currently much discussion in Australia about the best low emission generation of electricity, but very little about the OTHER 75% of emissions.The ONLY way to properly address net-zero is by an all-encompassing price to emit GHG's into the biosphere.
Acknowledgement: Claus Andersen, CLIMATE POSITIONS, Denmark.

land, ocean & Land/ocean:

average temperatures. 1880 to 2016

The blue line on the graph is Land temperature. The red line is Ocean temperature, and the yellow line is Land/Ocean temperature. Research by Claus shows land temperature rise precedes ocean temperature by about twenty years, and the combined rise by about 15 years.
Source: UK Met Office

50% increase in CO2

The pre-industrial concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 278 parts per milliion (ppm) of dry atmosphere gases. 417 ppm represented a 50% increase!Increasing an essential trace greenhouse gas (GHG) by 50% is unconscionable, if not completey and utterly crazy. The 'we did not know at the time' cry is no excuse because we've ALL known for over 30 years.
Source: NASA, GISS, NOAA, NCEL, ESRL, Climate Central

Why is it happening

Very little doubt about the close relationship and cause of the heating of the planet. The carbon dioxide (CO2) and rising temperatures (°C) have been pretty much locked step for the whole of the Industrial Age. It is considered by many that 'global warming' is a platitude designed to hide the clear fact that the Earth is heating up! Methane (CH4) pollution is also a massive contributor to temp. rise, and will form a further analysis topic.
Source: Copernicus - ECMWF

Global surface temperature increase above pre-industrial

A closer look at the rapid global temperature increases since the mid-1970's. The time-lag (hysteresis) after the clean-up of 'dirty power' in the 50's and 60's is clearly seen. SO2 and the very fine particulate pollution both acted as 'sun-shields'. Industrial activity post WWII was mainly centered on North America, Europe, East Asia, and the Soviet Union - all in the Northern hemisphere. This northern bias still applies today, which probably explains why the Arctic region is warming four times faster than the global average.
Source: University of Arizona Matthew Osman, Post Doctoral Researcher

Temperature (°C) rise 20,000 YEARS BCE TO NOW

16,000 years BCE saw the last Ice Age beginning to end. The accepted date of 11,700 BCE ended the Ice Age, and saw the start of the Holocene Geological Epoch. The scale of the graph, for the 1000 years until today, has been enlarged to more clearly show the rapid temperature rise since the beginning of the 20th century.

Always in the background

We must join forces to make a real impact on environmental issues. we must never forget what is at stake. Advocate for change at every opportunity.

Source: NASA and some very courageous men.

Barney's Blog

A multidisciplinary Lens

The numerous references to ‘we’ or ‘us’ in my blogs refer to a generic ‘we’ or ‘us’. It is a reference to the whole of the human race in general, but to no one person in particular. It is shorthand. There is an understanding that not every individual has the ability, the technical training, or the interest, in being knowledgeable of the scientific, and the many, many, other vitally essential functions, of the Earth’s environment and natural systems. But, if the protection of people, the economy, or the environment, is part of our remit, then it is imperative for ‘us’ to either know, to ask, to be briefed, educated, or otherwise inform ourselves how the stability of Earth’s environment — which has been beneficial for humanity’s development — can be assured. Ignorance of factors, critical to the survival of humanity, is no longer acceptable.
Latest blog
Post #40 Part 3The requirement to employ every possible technology, and conservation measure, in the fight against climate change, as stated in Post #38, will include the following:1. An agreed worldwide price for anyone to be allowed to emit carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. The world must stop CO2 emissions with the greatest of urgency. The warming caused by CO2 emissions is accelerating the release of years of stored methane (CH4), from regions of permafrost and ocean clathrates. 2. Engaging the world population, political, business, and religious leaders in the fight to curb greenhouse gas emissions (GHG’s). 3. End the ‘business as usual’ model. Urgently develop a new paradigm, the prime objective of which will be the development of a global economic system focussed on the elimination GHGs from the atmosphere, and social justice for all of the people in world. 4. Substantial funding of science (all areas) and engineering (all areas) with the aim of stabilising the chemistry of the biosphere and preventing the dawn of a new geological epoch that may be less favourable to humans — the Anthropocene? 5. Research on large-scale direct air capture and storage of CO2 (geo-sequestration). There is already far too much CO2 in the atmosphere, and it is imperative that substantial quantities are removed urgently. Also, carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) directly from industrial and power generation sites. There will be an opportunity to use captured CO2 as a feedstock for end user products and synthetic fuels. 6. Maximum use of renewable energy sources: wind, solar, tidal, geothermal and nuclear. Distributed power generation could play a greater role. Relegate fossil fuels to a minor role in the energy and fuel cycle. Firstly, the elimination of fossil fuels from power generation, land transport, and many industrial applications, as soon as possible. Secondly, elimination of fossil fuels from ocean transport. Thirdly, zero CO2 emission aerospace operations is more demanding, and will take longer. Replacing hydrocarbon fuel in air transport, presents significant challenges. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)—biofuels—are biomass-derived fuels from plants, animals, algae, waste oils, or other bio-waste, but enough feedstock to power all of the world’s aircraft is problematic. If plants/trees are grown solely for use as biofuel feedstock it will greatly reduce land available for food production. 7. Develop new, and more efficient, methods of energy storage, and also, long-distance transmission of electricity with minimal losses. 8. Most importantly, all types of recycling, energy conservation, soil conservation, reforestation, water conversation, protection of species diversity, and a maximum use of bio-sequestration, but importantly, not just for 20 or 30 years, but for hundreds and hundreds of years.
2/5/2 Part 2A technology that will be needed, to stop and reverse the changing climate, will unquestionably be Direct Air Capture (DAC), on a very large scale. Very large-scale DAC plants will be necessary: the largest plant operating in the world today has an ability to remove around 36,000 tonnes of CO2 each year (36x10^3). Annually, the global emissions of CO2 are about 37 Gigatonnes (37x10^9). Therefore, to remove only the annual emissions, a global DAC capacity six orders of magnitude greater than today’s largest plant, will be required. Industrial scale DAC is perhaps the only realistic solution left to the world now, and it should become the predominant industry of the future, rivalling only the fossil fuel extraction, and distribution, industry of today.Capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, at scale, will need to be carried out at sites where renewable energy sources are abundant, and the secure geological storage sites may be hundreds, or thousands, of kilometres distant from the extraction sites. The 2½ kilometre long coal trains of today could be replaced by 2½ kilometre long trains transporting liquid CO2. DAC will require countries with extensive renewable energy, large industrial bases, natural resources, and the building of suitable transport systems.Globally we must stop, and reverse, the increasing dangerous levels of CO2. Very few nations in the world have the renewable energy capacity, political stability, resources, technology, and wealth, to manage such a project, at the scale required. Countries such as, China, the United States, Russia, the UK/EU, Canada, and Australia, could be possible candidates?
30/4/25 Part 1The warming of our planet is becoming more damaging by the month, and there is no single solution. Starting about 200 years ago, virtually all of our energy needs have been based on increasingly effective methods of burning fossil fuels. Compare George Stevenson’s 1829 ‘Rocket’, and the Mach 2 passenger jet ‘Concorde’ — these were both powered by burning fossil fuel. These fuels have progressed us to where we are today.
We will need to use every imaginable technology, and conservation measure, to re-stabilise Earth’s biosphere. (Refer to Part 3) The stable environment of the Holocene geological Epoch — 12,500 years — has been very favourable to the development of the societies of today. However, this is NOT to say that the world is perfect for everyone, because this is, undeniably, not the case. There is a great deal more work to do.
26/4/25On April 25th, in Turkey, France, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and many other countries, inspirational ANZAC memorial ceremonies were observed. Much has been spoken about the courage, fortitude, and for many, the ultimate sacrifice, of those brave Australian and New Zealand Army Corps soldiers (ANZACs) in 1915/16/17/18 and, of course, in wars fought since that time. Most of the commemorative speeches rightly focus on the sacrifices made by the men and women in our armed forces to protect the freedoms we enjoy today, and into the future.However, apart from talking of protecting the freedoms we enjoy today, only a few of the April 25th speeches connect the spirit of service, and sacrifice, in the ANZAC tradition, to the duty we have today to ensure the hopes and dreams of future generations are fulfilled. Wikipedia does include examples from past speeches, some of which follow: ‘From sacrifice blooms hope for a brighter future’; ‘Let their legacy inspire new generations to build a better world’; ‘Hope lives on through the values of the Anzacs; ‘In their memory, we find strength for tomorrow’.In remembering that the nature of the war to be fought can change, the speech that I find most inspiring, in working for success in the war we humans have declared on the Earth’s ecosystems with our seemingly unstoppable heating of the planet, is this one: ‘The ANZAC legacy reminds us to persevere, no matter the odds’.Fight the good fight, all of us, as time is currently not on our side.
21/4/25Extract from my book, Change Ready or Not, which although written more than a decade ago, is still current regarding atmospheric water vapour. The 14°C is no longer current as the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that in July 2024 the daily average global temperature reached a record high at 17.16°C"Water vapour does have a significant greenhouse effect and together with the other greenhouse gases, is instrumental in keeping the planet at a comfortable average temperature of 14°C. But it is not directly responsible for increasing the temperature of the planet; the phenomenon known as global warming.""Actions by humans have very little direct influence on planetary water vapour levels, but there is a danger that a significant rise in global temperature, because of emissions from industrial and agricultural activity, may enhance the ability of the atmosphere to hold water vapour. In turn, this may lead to a future increase in the greenhouse effect and is just one of the potential global warming feedback mechanisms that should concern us all."And from the footnotes:1. Water vapour varies between a trace and 4% by volume, depending on both air temperature and location on the planet.2. Consequences of altering the water vapour carrying capacity of the atmosphere may trigger unknown and unfavourable tipping points.
16/4/25In Barney’s Blog, every now and then, I may be somewhat cyclic in writing about the urgent need to address the world’s GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission problem. We have all known of the problem for at least 36 years — that is how long ago the then UK Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, said to the UN General Assembly: “It is the prospect of irretrievable damage to the atmosphere, to the oceans, to earth itself. … … what we are now doing to the world, by degrading the land surfaces, by polluting the waters, and by adding greenhouse gases to the air at an unprecedented rate” (See post #11).So, I am being purposely repetitive. For the past 36 years, we have all known the dangers of GHG emissions, and for those 36 years, there has been an extensive, and recurring campaign, to say that climate change is not real, and we can continue to burn fossil fuels. Sadly, this denialist campaign has been very effective.We have known the danger, including our leaders in business and government, and yet, over the past 36 years, CO2 emissions alone have risen from ~ 22 Gt/year in 1989, to ~ 37½ Gt/year in 2024. Even more damaging, CO2 emissions, in 2025, are predicted to exceed 40 Gt (Gigatonne). In addition to CO2 emissions, methane and nitrous oxide are also greenhouse gases, and they add to the overall GHG total.Thirty-six years of business-as-usual: thirty-six years of non-caring business-as-usual. It is time to change — it is time to put a universal cost on emitting GHG emissions. Ongoing work..
8/4/25 Part 3 A possible, improbable event is redistribution of the planet’s bulk (mass), caused by the ice melting from Antarctica and Greenland. When this ice becomes water and travels from the polar regions towards the equatorial zones it could influence the ‘wobble’ in the Earth’s axis. It is known that the axis of the Earth ‘wobbles’, and there are a number of ‘wobbles’ superimposed on each other, with different cycles, and varying time periods. It is reported that some earthquakes have been large enough to have a small, but measurable effect on the ‘wobble’ of the Earth’s axis, due to movement of land masses and redistribution of the surface land mass. A report by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, showed that the March 11th, 2011, magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan, should have shifted the position of Earth's axis by about 0.17 metres.Considering a different situation, the mass of the Greenland ice sheet is approximately 2700 trillion tonnes, which is slightly less than a two millionth part of the Earth’s total mass. This is a very large, concentrated mass of ice, with a centre of mass displaced approximately 25 degrees of latitude to the axis of rotation of Earth. This may, or may not, be significant in the rotational dynamics of the Earth. Since 1992 about 5 trillion tonnes of ice have melted, which seems huge, and little, at the same time — is it significant — can it be ignored? Some reports have it all of Greenland’s ice melting in 1000 years, and some in 10,000 years, all depending on the rate at which we continue to heat up the Earth. It may take 10,000 years, but I doubt it. The axis of the Earth — the Earth weighs in at 5.98 x 10^24 kg — is a pretty stable feature of our day-to-day life, but a sizeable partial melt may cause us some problems. Can we really be assured that a partial, but significant, loss of the Greenland ice sheet will have no effect on the ‘wobble’ of the axis?Nonetheless, axis aside, what is sure is that considerable inflows of fresh water, from melting Ice sheets, and Glaciers, have the potential to change the system of interconnected Ocean currents. These massive ocean-spanning currents are vitally important to Earth’s climatic zones. We are playing a very high-stakes game by melting the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ongoing work.
6/4/25 Part 2 Maybe it is considered improbable that in the future we encounter a tipping point at odds with the stability of society and business. Nonetheless, disregarding the improbable is a risky business, as a global immunity from major tipping points cannot be assumed. In the movies, in the event of an improbable, planetwide, disastrous threat to human life, something equally improbable usually happens, at the eleventh hour, to save us all — fiction, of course!What is alarming, is that in addition to many predicted, and very real, dangers of global heating, there is also the possibility that some unforeseen, disastrous event may result from our human caused (anthropogenic) changes to the atmosphere/biosphere. Improbability alone is no assurance that such an event will never occur. All that improbability does is to limit scientific and political debate.
4/4/25 Part 1 It is reported that on 29th May 2024 a temperature of 52.9°C was recorded in a Delhi suburb — the hottest temperature ever in India. The 52.9°C needs official verification, but we know the ‘heat island effect’, in densely populated urban areas, can cause high local temperatures. This is a crazy situation. In the developed world we continue with our normal day-to-day lives and businesses: we ignore reports of extreme temperatures, and other extreme climatic events, in parts of the world disconnected from us. However, extreme events, in distant parts of the world, may be more connected with our normal day-to-day lives than is immediately evident — think ‘tipping points’.A tipping point can be described as a small change in a complex networked system, which causes a much larger change in the output, or behaviour, of the system. The worldwide declining population of honeybees is a case in point, where the honeybees have passed some population tipping point. The Earth has clearly passed many, many tipping points, and we have little awareness of the cause, or effect, of each tipping point. More importantly, we also do not know if we have passed any particular tipping point, and whether a particular tipping point is going to screw us up completely — or not.In some future time, we will likely pass a tipping point, which may be at odds with the stability of world society and commerce, and it will be too late to backtrack. It is possible that we could be approaching unknown, but potentially critical, tipping points in the next few years. We should tread very carefully — ongoing work.
11/3/25 The political forces lined up against imposing an all-encompassing cost, for the privilege of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, are enormous. (The 11/9/24 post has more on this topic). These ‘political forces’ frequently belittle the use of wind powered electrical generators by referring to them using derogatory and offensive language. Some of these quotes are from past times, but new messages from these people have changed little.A former Deputy PM of Australia told an anti-wind farm rally: “Get rid of the wind turds — when you get to the top of the Bulli Pass, you’ll look down and see all the wind turds…” A former PM of Australia described wind turbines as: “the dark satanic mills of the modern era” One of the most powerful men in the world was once quoted as saying: "I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much”.They are not windmills — this is a term that is used again, and again, to belittle wind turbines. Back in twelfth century Europe, when the vertical windmill was first used to grind grain, the folk correctly called them windmills. If those folk had invented wind powered generators, they would most likely have called them wind generators.The people quoted above represent powerful political forces — we are relying on these same powerful political forces to keep us safe from the negative effects of a heating planet — good luck to us all with that one.
7/2/25 Every power within the world, should be working to eliminate further greenhouse gas emissions into the biosphere, and also be carrying out substantial research in how we, as a species, can remove the excess carbon dioxide (CO2) already in the atmosphere. To get atmospheric CO2 to what is considered a ‘safe’ level of 350 ppm, 70/80 ppm of CO2 must/should be removed from the atmosphere.Remembering always, there is a social justice element to the management of this planet. There are many, many millions of people who do not have clean water, enough food, decent shelter, effective sanitation, or decent life expectancy.The future of our species will depend on how well homo sapiens handle the emerging climate catastrophe. And, how effectively we manage that emerging climate catastrophe, may well depend on how fairly and justly, the wealthy, highly developed, nations of the world work to bring less developed nations into the advantaged world of abundance? — Ongoing work.
6/2/25 Would it make a difference to the way we humans look after, and respect, the Earth if we knew we were unique in the universe? It is a possibility. Some astrophysicists and cosmologists increasingly speak with language that highlights just how special the Earth’s environment, and the development of life on Earth is in the vastness of the universe.The inflationary multiverse theory suggests there may be an infinite number of universes. Postulated in some circles, there is a possibility of another me, in another universe, typing this very same blog? I suggest that may not be the case, and in an infinity of universes, it is more likely each one is unique.In the immediate, in this special corner of the cosmos, we must carefully conserve this planet’s natural resources. Especially those special parts of the biosphere which absorb our excess carbon dioxide — the atmosphere and the oceans. Atmosphere and ocean are our most precious carbon sinks, and accordingly our most precious natural resource.
5/2/25 In February 1990, Carl Sagan was successful in asking NASA to turn Voyager 1 around and photograph the Earth from the edges of the solar system, from a distance of 6.4 billion kilometres. The Earth appeared as tiny Pale Blue Dot, in a scattered light beam, only about one eighth of a pixel in size. Sagan famously, and correctly, stated that everyone who had ever lived, in all of Earth’s history, had lived on that tiny pale blue dot. — (changereadyornot.com has a copy of Carl Sagans full quote).There are several theories, some of which are conflicting, which describe the origin and characteristics of our universe. We have: the big bang, as a singularity, preceding inflation: cosmic inflation preceding the big bang: the inflationary multiverse: the cosmic microwave background radiation (CBMR).Does it matter? It does! It challenges us to look after our tiny pale blue dot — it is conceivable we may be all the universe has going for it.
25/1/25 — Australia and Nuclear Power (Part III)The United Kingdom, with an established nuclear industry, and more than double Australia’s population, only plans an extra 18 GW of capacity by 2050. The United States also has an established nuclear industry, and more than ten times Australia’s population, only plans an extra 97 GW of capacity by 2050.Australia, by 2050, with zero nuclear generation industry, aims to better the UK’s 2050 added Gigawatt target, by nearly 40% — and achieve just on 25% of the US’s current nuclear generating capacity. The cost of implementation, and a lack of nuclear power plant design and construction engineers, is just the start of the challenges facing Australia, with its 2050 nuclear plan. There will be formidable, and worldwide competition, for nuclear power plant building capacity.On a per-capita basis, and also with a smaller tax base, Australia would need to outperform the nuclear expansion of both the UK and the US. There will be applications, best provided for by nuclear power. Research is currently being undertaken on the best use of nuclear energy in Australia, which will be the subject of future articles.The figures quoted have been rounded for clarity, but the essential message is unchanged.
24/1/25 — Australia and Nuclear Power (Part II)To put Australia’s nuclear ambitions into context, the U.K. currently has 15 civil nuclear reactors in 5 operational plants. Three of the reactors have ceased generating and are currently being de-fuelled. The U.K. presently gets about 16% of its electricity from nuclear, and plans to increase nuclear generation, by 2050, by 4 times from 6 Gigawatt (GW) to 24 GW. The U.S. has 94 commercial nuclear reactors in 54 power plants and currently gets about 18% of its electricity from nuclear. The U.S. plans to add 200 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, from about 97 GW to just under 300 GW.The perplexing part of the Australian plan, for 38% electricity generation from nuclear by 2050, is several-fold. It is estimated by AEMO that the Australian demand for electrical generation will double by 2050 and if Australia achieves the full potential of ‘green’ hydrogen/ammonia production, together with proposed ‘green’ production of steel and aluminium, doubling may be a low estimate. We could be talking upwards of 65 GW by 2050, and the 38 %, could easily be about 25 GW.No nuclear power plants, or technology, to 25 GW of nuclear capacity in 25 years is a massive jump!The figures quoted have been rounded for clarity, but the essential message is unchanged.
23/1/25 — Australia and Nuclear Power (Part I)A current and dominant political debate in Australia is over whether Australia should replace its aging coal-fuelled generating capacity with nuclear power stations, or have confidence in renewable power, from wind turbines and solar energy, backed up with storage and gas. The alternative Australian government’s 2050 plan for Australia’s energy mix is to be 38% nuclear power, which involves building seven nuclear power plants, 54% renewable energy and 8% from storage and gas — this plan is more than a little perplexing.In both proposed electrical energy strategies for Australia, the gas back-up would involve the latest dual cycle gas turbine generating plants, and the storage would utilise batteries and pumped hydroelectricity. It is a reasonable expectation that, between now and 2050, the efficiency of all power generation, and storage, methodologies will be enhanced.Original sources for this series of articles include: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.K. Office for Nuclear Regulation, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), the Australian departments of Treasury, and Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.
10/1/25 If heating of the planet happened to be a football match, the score would be, fossil fuel and vested financial and political interests 1.5°Celsius, and me and the world nil. Unfortunately, in the game of planetary physics, there are no red cards.
9/1/25 Following on from my two previous posts. On 24th July, the National Broadcaster re reported that the record global average temperature was 17.16 °C. It was also reported that Australia had recorded the lowest birth rate since 2006. This was identified as being due to cost-of-living pressures, which may well be a correct conclusion. There was no suggestion, however, that another possible, and additional factor, is likely to be that people are becoming increasingly concerned about bringing new life into a rapidly warming, and potentially dangerous, planetary environment.
23/11/24Something puzzling from the previous post? Why should we be concerned by a rise in the daily global average temperature to 17.16°C (Celsius) on 22nd July 2024, when we see that temperatures, for example, of up to 70.7°C have been recorded in the Dasht-e Lut desert in Iran. The difference being, that the global average temperature is the weighted average temperature of Earth's surface, measured over both the land and the ocean but record high (or low) temperatures are locality specific.The more serious reality is that the global-average temperature for the past 12 months is 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. (Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service). And, 1.64°C above pre-industrial is significant because as stated last week, ‘the 10 highest annual maximums, in the last 50 years, have all occurred in the last 10 years’, and the Earth has not experienced a record global-average cold temperature year since 1976.Furthermore, a 1.64°C temperature increase in less than 150 years is a remarkably large temperature change in a rather short span of time, and relatively small changes, in the global average temperature, produce very large changes in extreme temperatures. Even more serious is the fact that the global average temperature tracks changes in the total energy from the Sun to the Earth, minus the energy radiated back into space from the Earth — it is a budget of the energy retained by the Earth. To raise the temperature of all of the oceans, the land, and atmosphere by 1.64°C takes a vast amount of energy. This vast quantity of energy is accumulated by the Earth, as a whole, and it will NOT go away.
18/11/24From the news a short while ago: “New record daily global average temperature reached on 22nd July 2024 — at 17.16°C it is the highest in our modern Era”. What is even more extraordinary, is that the 10 highest annual maximums, in the last 50 years, have all occurred in the last 10 years. How much do these facts concern you?

18/11/24We often see graphs like this on the Internet, our TVs our mobile/cell phones — or in newspapers and magazines. They are from reliable sources. The source for the graph below is NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEL), and the Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL).This graph is from USA government organisations, but the information shown in the graph is reinforced thousands of time over by datasets obtained from research organisations all around the world.
The correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and the increase in global temperature is pretty clear. Nonetheless, there is a persistent opinion among people that find it difficult to accept that our lifestyles, and attendant carbon dioxide emissions, are responsible for the heating of the planet.Recently, in an attempt to deny that human activity is the cause of global heating, we heard, over the airwaves: “maybe some sort of heavenly body circles our planet and changes our climate, because there has been changes in the past, before we had cars, airplanes, and electricity, etcetera, etcetera”.There always must be a reason, but it can’t be us? However it is us! It is our prodigious use of fossil fuels as an energy source! Fossil fuels are in effect ‘stored energy from the Sun’. Homo Sapiens (us) are now smart enough to use the Sun’s energy in ‘real-time’, and the only thing holding it up are vested interests in the fossil fuel industries.
2/11/24It is critical, for the future of humanity, that a total budget for both historically accumulated, and future CO2 emissions is agreed at COP 29 in Baku in Azerbaijan in November (11th to 22nd 2024). There must be agreement on how this total is shared equitably and objectively between developed and developing nations.The need for high-order leader/statesmanship grows greater, and greater, the longer effective action to arrest heating of the Earth is pushed back by the global political and theological leadership. We, now 8.2 billion of us, have already wasted/prevaricated/quibbled away thirty-five valuable years.
2/11/24We need to preserve the climatic conditions humans have benefitted from for the past 12,500 years. The excesses of carbon dioxide (CO2) humans have been forcing into the atmosphere — partially absorbed by the oceans — since the start of the industrial age roughly 260 years ago, is staggering in scale. The rate at which CO2has been building up in the atmosphere, and oceans, has been accelerating since 1900. The rate of the build-up of CO2 increased again from the 1950s, and increased still further from the 1990s. This is changing, and moving, the Earth’s climatic zones into conditions not seen on Earth for about 2½ million years: a very risky planet-wide experiment. This dangerous experiment will require all of us to think profoundly, and overwhelmingly differently, about our political, economic, social, and environmental policies. The strategies to preserve Earth's environment, which supports human wellbeing and progress, will be challenging for us all. It is ongoing work.
2/11/24Arguments on the way out of Earth’s climatic crisis are many. Globally though, the world appears to be in a ‘silo thinking’ mode rather than in a ‘business process’ thinking mode. There is an abundance of speeches about projects, and work, that could, and in fact should, be actioned around the world, but there is very little action on a SCALE equal to the SCALE of the climate problem.There is no single solution to the interlocking problems we face — we shall need hundreds of interlocking solutions. The world needs complexity not simplicity, ‘process’ and not ‘silo’ thinking. No more political point scoring.For the global community to get out of the current climate mess, we need EVERY idea!On-going work.
1/11/24Over the past 15 years, in Australia — one of the 16 — there has been an abundance of policies designed to reduce the country's CO2 emissions. Every new policy appears to replace another. Similar thinking seems to play out in other countries in the ‘club of sixteen’. (16 countries that emit above 1.06% of the global annual total of CO2.)Mindful of the century, or so, it has taken human beings to get into this climate mess, the policy process should be additive, not replacive. As previously discussed, for the world to preserve, as far as is now possible, the benign conditions of the current Holocene geological epoch for our children, it will require throwing everything we can think of at the problem.This will involve bringing ALL of the countries in the world into the problem solving process, AND sharing the financial benefits accruing from the change to a net zero CO2 emission world. The IPCC defines Net Zero, as when total emissions are ≤ the emissions removed from the environment.Methane CH4 is an additional problem — it is on-going work.
2/10/24 Humans have changed the chemistry of our entire planet — the Earth — weighing in at roughly six billion, trillion tonnes! The chemistry of the Earth’s biosphere has changed substantially over the past 70 years; a very short time, considered on planetary timescales.This is BIG stuff, and it will require BIG action to fix it. Humans are currently afraid of taking BIG steps, so we are trying to fix the climate imbalance with LITTLE steps. Variations on continuing with the usual, whether business, or anything else as usual, will simply NOT cut it!
11/9/24 Plastics in our environment cannot be ignored from the standpoint of raw material and energy waste, marine and land pollution, and GHG emissions. Equally, the matter of recycling plastics cannot be ignored, and the matter of segregating and collecting the different plastics is consuming increasing resources.In 2022, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated that “less than 10% of the plastic used around the world is recycled”. It is unlikely to have changed in the past two years! Of interest to us all, is awareness of the different plastics/resin types that are relatively easy to recycle, those resin types that are more difficult, and those resins that are unable to be recycled.The recycling logo is well known. Less well known are the recycling numbers, which are:Recycling Code #1: PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) water bottles, trays, etc. — commonly recycled.Recycling Code #2: HDPE (High-Density Polyethylene) for milk, shampoo, etc. — commonly recycled.Recycling Code #3: PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) for piping, blister packs, etc. — not recycled*.Recycling Code #4: LDPE (Low-Density Polyethylene) for food bags etc. — not always recyclable*.Recycling Code #5: PP (Polypropylene) for food packaging, yoghurt, etc. — commonly recycled.Recycling Code #6: PS (Polystyrene) for plastic cutlery, Styrofoam containers — not always recyclable*.Recycling Code #7: OTHERS. Includes acrylic, polycarbonate, nylon, fibreglass, etc. — not recyclable.* Could be recyclable at specialist facilities.With recycling, not only will we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, avoid ingesting micro and nano plastics, but also ensure a greener planet for our children and grandchildren.
11/9/24 The concept of ‘total cost’ is critically important. A quote from my book, Change – Ready or Not, sums up the nitty-gritty of ‘total cost’:“When total CO2 emission costs are calculated, including a proportion of the emission cost of building ships, providing crews, fuel, docking facilities, administration, marketing, office buildings and other infrastructure, the overall comparison equation between ‘distant’ and ‘local’ may change markedly. The price of using the atmosphere as a carbon dioxide sink must always be factored into the total cost of any good or service”.The total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) into the atmosphere must be included in the final cost of all materials, energy, products, and services.
10/9/24 A few posts ago I spoke to the doubtful sustainability of using throwaway wood spoons to stir our takeaway coffee, and throwaway wood knives and forks for our takeaway cheese toasties. In full service cafés, and restaurants, constantly re-washed, stainless steel cutlery is the go. For throwaway cutlery, where do we go? There is really only plastic or wood. Of course, plastic cutlery is only the very tip of the plastic recycling iceberg. The ‘elephant in the corner of the plastic recycling room’ is the previously discussed, and never to go away, lack of a worldwide pricing on emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Plastic is made from oil, so any plastic that can be recycled should be, which will not only save natural resources, but also energy. If the true cost were to be known of extracting oil from oil wells, or tar sands, including all the associated on-costs, that are necessary to produce new plastic, polymer, feedstock, the economics of recycling previously used plastic would be calculatable.
9/9/24 Solving the problem of a rapidly warming earth, will require the very highest level of political and economic leadership.
1967 Expo Geodesic Dome, Montreal.
Buckminster Fuller, who popularized the Geodesic Dome, is quoted as saying: “Our children and our grandchildren are our elders in universe time — they are born into a more complex, more evolved universe than we can experience, or than we can know. It is our privilege to see that new world through their eyes.”By wasting the last thirty years, or so, with still no agreed worldwide cost on emitting the greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, into the atmosphere, are we forgetting our responsibility to our ‘Elders in Universe Time’?
9/9/24 November 8, 1989, the former UK Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, said: “we have all recently become aware of another insidious danger. It is as menacing in its way as those more accustomed perils with which international diplomacy has concerned itself for centuries. It is the prospect of irretrievable damage to the atmosphere, to the oceans, to earth itself. … … What we are now doing to the world, by degrading the land surfaces, by polluting the waters and by adding greenhouse gases to the air at an unprecedented rate — all this is new in the experience of the earth.”… …“It is mankind and his activities which are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways. … … We are seeing a vast increase in the amount of carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere. … … and half the carbon emitted since the Industrial Revolution still remains in the atmosphere. … … At the same time as this is happening, we are seeing the destruction on a vast scale of tropical forests which are uniquely able to remove carbon dioxide from the air.”… …“We need a realistic programme of action and an equally realistic timetable. Each country has to contribute, and those countries who are industrialised must contribute more to help those who are not. The work ahead will be long and exacting. We should embark on it hopeful of success, not fearful of failure. … … We are … … the trustees of this planet, charged today with preserving life itself — preserving life with all its mystery and all its wonder. May we all be equal to that task.” Extracts quoted are relevant to the global heating we face today, in 2024. I remember that the former UK Prime Minister, Baroness Margaret Thatcher, also said: “we shall need statesmanship of the highest order.”
9/9/24 Global leadership on environmental matters has not always been missing in action. The Montreal Protocol, designed to protect the ozone layer, and end emission of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydro-chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) into Earth’s atmosphere, has been highly successful.Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan stated that: "perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol".August 2024, the current UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, observed: “At a time when multilateralism is under severe strain, the Montreal Protocol, to help protect the ozone layer, stands out as a powerful symbol of hope. It is a reminder that when countries show political resolve for the common good, change is possible”.Likewise, the former UK Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, made a significant address to the United Nations General Assembly in November 1989, on the foremost problem facing our world in the present day.
1/9/24 Among the questions, regarding how our leadership is reacting to the overheating of our planet, is the following. While it may be a relatively minor question, it is illustrative how blind we are flying, and the question is this: “is the best use of trees making wooden knives, forks and spoons, or planting the correct trees to store carbon for 100 years or more?”The answer is pretty clear. Disposable knives, forks and spoons made from wood may well be renewable, but that is not the whole story. When the cost of collection, composting, regrowing the trees, harvesting the trees, re-manufacturing and distribution are added, spoons made from wood are anything but a zero sum game.Without an accurate, and chargeable, global cost for every tonne of CO2 dumped into the atmosphere, none of the critical questions can be answered, and the lack of pricing the emission of CO2 into the environment is definitely not a minor issue.This is what global leadership is missing. The science of the biosphere is clear. The engineering is ready and waiting. Political and economic agendas, which run counter to the good of the planet and its people, are what is gumming up the works.
17/8/24 To maintain the best features of the Holocene Epoch, features which have favoured development of our complex societies, the world’s people must mobilise vast financial resources to the task. In planning the ‘how’, maybe we should ponder the following reflective passage.In what universe would you find a planet, the inhabitants of which, would allow dumping of a harmful waste product into their biosphere completely free of any cost.Continuing the ‘unbelievability’ theme, would you then expect to find that, one way or another, those same inhabitants will (happily?) pay the cost of removing, or mitigating the consequences of, the pollutant.There is such a planet: it is located in what the locals call, the Milky Way Galaxy, in a planetary system the locals call the Solar System, on a planet known by the locals as Earth.For us, one question is: ‘how do we, fairly and justly, mobilise the necessary financial resources on a global basis?’ 14/7/24Remembering, from the ‘too small to matter’ hypothesis, if the emissions of one country emitting less than 1.06% CO2, and the total emissions of these 180 emitters of CO2 is ~24% of the global total. It could then be further argued that the emissions of Russia, the US, and India (~24% in total) do not matter either. Arguing that some peoples CO2 emissions do not matter is a very dangerous and slippery path for us all. This applies especially for the young folk among us.But, it is more complicated than annual global percentages of carbon dioxide emissions. There are additional (complex) matters, that are even more important, when deciding what is fair and just, and what is not. It is on-going work. 10/7/24Continuing the ‘too small to matter theme’, the CO2 emissions of the sixteen, equals ~ 76% of the global total. This means that, the remaining 180 countries/places emit only ~ 24% of the global total, ALL together. If it is to be argued that 1.06% does not matter, we are effectively saying that 24% of global emissions do not matter; a logical consequence of declaring the emissions of the 180 countries emitting less than 1.06% of global CO2 do not matter. 2/7/24The ‘our CO2 emissions are too small to matter’ contention is less frequently heard at a senior political level these days, but it is still expressed among many of the folk who vote for, and influence, political positioning. To dispel any doubt: in the UN there are 193 countries. If Reunion, Gibraltar and Palestine are added — all of which are emitters of CO2 — then we have 196 emitters of CO2 on our planet. Importantly, only 16 countries emit equal to, or more than, 1.06% of the global annual total of CO2. My country, Australia, is among those sixteen countries. 26/6/24The discussions centered around the issue of which nation should, or should not, reduce CO2 emissions by the most, or not at all, is complex on many levels. It is a question that cannot be dealt with in just a few posts. It is a question discussed in many countries. I have heard it debated, at the highest levels of politics, in my country — Australia.The argument runs along the following lines: “our emissions are so tiny by global comparison; they do not matter”. (Australian CO2 emissions ≈ 1.06% of the world total). “Therefore, if we reduced our CO2 emissions to zero it wouldn’t make any difference. Hence, we do not need to excessively reduce our emissions”;• especially if it is to the detriment of the economy;• particularly if it leads to higher electricity or fuel costs. 18/6/24However, in considering the hypothesis that the global response to the destabilisation of the Earth’s biosphere, atmosphere and oceans, is inadequate, should the global community be exploring the feasibility of a global effort on the scale that occurred during WWII? Could/should this be the template for action to reverse global heating.Recently, Admiral Barrie, former chief of the Australian Defence Force, was quoted as saying: “the government should be moving to an effective ‘wartime’ footing on climate change”. He went on to say: “instead it had dedicated ‘precisely two sentences of substance’ to climate impact”. The question must be asked whether we, the adults of the world, are doing enough to ensure a good, safe, healthy, and flourishing future for the young members of the world community? 12/6/24World War II was the last global war with as far reaching consequences as the all-consuming war we have declared on our climate. That war evidenced itself in every aspect our day-to-day lives; blackouts, ‘loose lips sink ships’, rationing, it encompassed all aspects of people’s lives, whether in military service, or in civilian life. I am not advocating that we move to a ‘hot war’ footing, with all the associated restrictions on freedom, but the world is not dealing with the very major alterations already made to the chemistry of the biosphere with the seriousness that is needed. 7/6/24The rampant burning of fossil fuels is causing changes to Earth’s climatic zones at a much faster rate than any time in the past. Little urgency regarding this problem appears in our public spaces — the all-encompassing space that includes such diverse areas as: media, sporting facilities, supermarkets, businesses, political and economic debate, and on, and on. We have declared war on our planet. 4/6/24In 1765, when James Watt massively improved the performance of the steam engine, he really put a fire under fossil fuel burning machines. This initialised close to 260 years of fossil fuel based energy development for virtually everything we do or use. With the massive advances in science and engineering, since the 19th century, and most of the 20th century, we will not take anything close to 260 years to develop non-fossil energy sources to the same level of performance as the fossil sources. But we only have one twentieth of the time to do it! If we have not nailed it by 2037 civil society will be toast.
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